Doing the Math for the Tour Championship, FedEx Cup

With the exception of the Open Championship at Turnberry, where he missed the cut, Tiger Woods worst finish in a stroke play event during the 2009 season is his T11 at the Deutsche Bank Championship.

Even if Woods struggles at the upcoming Tour Championship at East Lake and winds up finishing 12^th, and Y.E. Yang who overcame a final round deficit to beat Tiger at the PGA Championship wins, Yang would still come up short by 25 points. Yang enters the Tour Championship 21^st in the FedEx Cup Standings. And while Woods is the man they'll all be chasing in two weeks time, a golfer positioned within the top 5 can easily swoop in and steal the cup from Tiger with a top 5 finish if the World's No. 1 player finishes in the middle of the pack.

FedEx Cup Standings Following the Reset

What does this all mean?

Just hanging on or shooting par probably won't be good enough to win the FedEx Cup. Whoever wants it will have to go low and win it outright.

Let's take a look at three scenarios, all of which calculate what it will take for players at different levels in the standings to pass Woods. Of course, this won't take into account what players like Steve Stricker, Jim Furyk, Zach Johnson or Heath Slocum will do.

Tiger Woods is the No. 1 seed entering the Tour Championship. John Senden is No. 30. Woods has 2,500 points after the reset. Senden has 210. In order for Senden to pass Woods, Tiger would have to finish dead last and he would have to win. Not a very likely scenario, but Senden is mathematically alive. Of course a reasonable finish by anyone else in the top five would knock Senden out of contention.

In order for the No. 30 in this championship to win the Cup, the current FedExCup Standings would basically have to invert themselves at East Lake.

But the odds get better if you're Phil Mickelson. If Mickelson wins the Tour Championship he would earn 2,500 points, bringing his total to 2,920. If Woods finishes ninth, he would have only 2,900 points. Again, Mickelson would also have to contend with the likes of Furyk and Stricker.

What about Padraig Harrington, who is No. 6? Keep in mind that any member of the top 5, which includes Woods, Stricker, Furyk, Johnson and Slocum wins the FedEx Cup with a victory at East Lake.

A win would almost certainly mean victory for Harrington as well. If Tiger Woods finishes 3^rd at the Tour Championship his final point total would be 3,450. If Harrington wins at East Lake, he'd finish with 3,900, comfortably ahead of Woods. The same holds true for Slocum, who was an afterthought before his victory at The Barclays.

Woods has six PGA Tour wins this year, and after his dominating performance at Cog Hill, he's probably a lock for Player of the Year, but he'll need one more outstanding week of golf to win the $10 million top prize.

For a complete breakdown of the points, click here.

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