On the eve of the 109th U.S. Open championship, it's tough to imagine a player not named Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson winning the tournament if you've been watching any of the preview programming put on by the likes of The Golf Channel and ESPN.
Obviously Lefty is the sentimental favorite and rightly so, and as someone who'll be in the gallery at Bethpage Black on Sunday I'd absolutely be thrilled to experience the emotions of a Mickelson march up 18 with victory in hand, but if I had to pick between the two, I'm taking Tiger all the way.
Woods outclassed the field at Memorial like Barack Obama would Sarah Palin in a debate on international relations, and the forecast for inclement weather for the majority of the week makes me even more confident that Tiger will emerge as a back-to-back winner. When conditions are this difficult, only a handful of players can win, and you'd be hard pressed to find any golf expert who'd feel comfortable not selecting Woods out of that group.
As Tiger said in his pre-tournament presser, the U.S. Open isn't just about making birdies.
"I like my chances in any major," he said. "I just enjoy having to think your way around a golf course. It's not -- a lot of the Tour events we play you just have to make birdies. If you don't shoot 68 you're losing ground. Here if you shoot 68 you're moving up on the leaderboard. To me that's fun. Par is rewarded and a birdie is really rewarded.
That to me, it's how the game of golf should be played."
Translation: It doesn't take an all-time ass kicker to win at the Bob Hope Classic, but you'd better be playing the best golf of your life to beat me on a course like Bethpage Black, especially if I'm hitting fairways.
Mickelson is the wild card in this tournament. If he gets off to a solid start and builds on the energy from his galleries, Lefty could very well be in the mix come Sunday. But say he struggles Thursday afternoon when gusting winds and rain are supposed to be factors, and it could be an early week for Phil.
Let's get to some predictions and mention a few names other than King Tiger and Prince Phil.
Five to Watch:
1. Sean O'Hair - Sorry Sergio, but I think Mr. O'Hair has become the best player yet to win a major championship. I thought the closest thing we had to a major, other than the Masters of course, this year was the Quail Hollow Championship and O'Hair managed the course and his emotions quite well there. He's got the talent to hang with Tiger, and if there should be a primetime pairing with the world's No. 1 on Sunday, he's been there. Remember Bay Hill.
2. Justin Rose - Really no particluar reason to make this selection. Every year somebody catches lightning in a bottle at this tournament; Rocco Mediate is a great example. Rose made a name for himself at the British Open, and this year's U.S. Open may resemble one.
3. Steve Stricker - Coming off a victory at Colonial, and he's been red hot this year. I think consistency translates into U.S. Open success, at least it makes me feel secure in saying he'll finish in the top 20 for the purposes of this list.
4. Ian Poulter - ESPN's Jason Sobel is taking Poulter to win it all, and while I guess this pick puts me on that bandwagon it's tough to ignore Poulter's recent play at majors. Plus, he really has the demeanor to do well down the stretch. Watching him battle it out at the 2008 British Open had me thinking that it's just a matter of time before this guy breaks through with a huge win.
5. Bubba Watson - This might look like a stab in the dark here, but Watson's game is ideal for an Open run, especially on a bomber's course like the Black. Watson finished tied for 5th at the 2007 U.S. Open at Oakmont and could be in line to contend again this year. He has all the shots, a great imagination, clearly loves the game (which is really important when you're under all of the stress players will be faced with this week) and doesn't get too down when he hits a subpar shot. Bubba could surprise on Long Island this week.
A Candidate for this year's Mediate:
Bill Mayfair - Tied for 5th place the last time the U.S. Open visited Bethpage Black. Since, he's battled testicular cancer and fought to regain his status on the PGA Tour. Unlikely yes, but wouldn't it be nice to see a cancer survivor live out his dream during a week that's almost become an event dedicated to raising awareness for the disease and those who it affects.
Your 2009 U.S. Open Champion:
It's got to be Tiger Woods. I know Big Ben shot an 81 on the Black during Golf Digest's U.S. Open challenge, but I'm not expecting Bethpage to roll over and play dead this week. The wind and the rain will only serve to protect par, and there hasn't ever been a player who can grind like Tiger. It will probably be close, but Woods finds a way; one victory closer to catching Jack.