The 138th Open Championship begins Thursday at
Turnberry, a links layout that has less history of hosting golf's oldest major
than any other course in the Open Championship rota. A common thread that has
been repeatedly pointed out is that Turnberry has been able to identify the
world's best golfer at that given time on each occassion it has hosted the event.
In 1977, the Open Championship's first visit to Turnberry, Tom Watson emerged from a monumental duel with Jack Nicklaus with the Claret Jug in his grasp. Greg Norman won in 1986, and Nick Price was the victor in 1994.
In this case history only serves to solidify Tiger Woods as the prohibitive favorite this week. This is his first visit to the course.
Personally, I loathe the newest trend adopted by golf experts of making Tiger Woods their default pick, but then selecting someone else should Woods fail to win.
History of Turnberry as host of the Open Championship certainly would suggest a Woods win, and we're drunk on last week's result at the AT&T National just as we were after The Memorial. All of that aside, I find that Woods has been eratic this season, performing swimmingly one week and struggling (if you call a top 10 struggling) the next. And while Turnberry has selected the best player in the world as its champion on three previous occasions, the previous majors in 2009 have certainly not. Angel Cabrera, Lucas Glover.....
Will there be another surprise winner in 2009 or will Tiger finally break through and win his 15th major? I'm leaning more toward Woods contending, but eventually falling short of his fourth Open Championship; it will look a lot like Augusta and Bethpage.
One side note, I'm quite disappointed that Phil Mickelson won't be in the field. Mickelson's collapse at Winged Foot and the chaos his family is currently going through have humanized the man so much in my mind that he's become almost a cult figure in the game right now and I'd dare say warrants as much attention as Tiger going forward. He will be missed this week.
Three players who will be missed atop the leader board this week will be Woods, Sergio Garcia and two-time defending champion Padraig Harrington.
Five to Watch this Week at Turnberry
1. Ross Fisher - Fisher ranks 4th in the Race to Dubai (Order of Merit) heading into the Open Championship and is coming off a very quiet top five finish in the U.S. Open. He has four top 10 finishes in 2009, including strong performances in the WGC - Accenture Match Play Championship and BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. Fisher has proved throughout the year that he excels on the big stage and the 138th Open Championship is another chance to do so.
"The course is set up extremely tough this week, and
keeping the ball on the fairway will be key to success," Fisher said on
his Web site. "I am strong off the tee in that I am long and usually
accurate, so hopefully that part of my game is on song this week and I can post
some scores.
"The key is to avoid trouble. If you can avoid the really heavy stuff, then the
birdies will come, but there are some holes on this course that can seriously
harm a decent scorecard."
2. John Daly -
Have we already forgotten about the John Daly Comeback Tour 2009? Daly played
relatively well during his lengthy Euro Trip earlier this year before he made
his PGA Tour debut in Memphis. Daly hasn't been able to translate fairly good
ball striking into consistent scoring yet, but this could be the week. While
U.S. golf fans were counting down the days until Daly's stateside return, Big
John has had the Open Championship marked on his calendar since the year
started. If he were to contend, it would be the story of the year.
3. David Toms - Is it just me or is David Toms near the top of the leader board every time I tune into a PGA Tour event this season? He has the accuracy off the tee to play well at Turnberry this week.
4. Graeme McDowell - The kid from Northern Ireland is getting a significant amount of ink heading into the Open Championship this week, but I like the veteran who posted two rounds in the 60s at Bethpage a few weeks ago and finished in the top 20 at Royal Birkdale. Just called it a hunch, but I really liked what I saw from him in person on Long Island.
5. Henrik Stenson - Stenson showed that his game has the ability to hold up under very strenuous conditions earlier this year when he dusted the field in the final round of the Players Championship. The Open Championship weather is often like a box of chocolates, and if things get nasty out there I like the big Swede's ability to handle the rough stuff.
The 2009 Open Champion
Ian Poulter - With the crowd focused on Harrington and Norman during last year's Open Championship, it was Poulter who impressed by nearly willing himself to victory with a final round surge. If he wouldn't have run out of holes, the crown prince of golf fashion might have won this event in 2008. He again showed his mettle during the Ryder Cup and finished in the top 20 at The Masters and in the U.S. Open. Sorry Sergio, but Mr. Poulter's time has arrived.